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Coffee alternatives: a growing market

Drinks people choose in place of coffee, for gentler caffeine, the gut or sleep, or a ritual of their own, searched by name and as “… vs coffee”.

13 searches doing one job, up a median +31% on a year ago. Updated .

Opportunity
66/100
six parts, below
Searches, a year
+31%
the median search in it
Searches in it
13
3 exploding
Rising
10 of 11
of its measured searches
Largest search
823K
matcha, a month
Cost per click
$1.35
the median, what advertisers pay
Difficulty
13/100
the median, to rank in search
Peak month
April
when its searches peak

Opportunity: 66/100

  • Momentum5/25Searches are up 31% year on year (median of 11 measured trends; the typical trend we track: 238%).
  • Breadth12/1510 of 11 measured trends are rising.
  • Durability16/2010 of 11 trends with three years of history rose two years running.
  • Size15/15The largest single search is 823K a month; 10 trends have 10K or more.
  • Money5/10Advertisers pay a median $1.35 a click.
  • Room to rank13/15Median keyword difficulty 13 of 100.

What to watch

  • 1 of 13 trends jumped suddenly and nothing beyond search confirms it yet.
  • 5 of 13 trends have peaked.
The market's curve over three years: the median search against its own average in the first year (100), 103 now

The searches in it

13 searches doing the same job, 3 of them exploding. Those with a page link to it.

SearchStageA yearSearches a month
matchaexploding+38%823K
ryze mushroom coffeepast its peak+3%368K
mushroom coffeepast its peak-5%201K
yerba mategrowing steadily+15%201K
loaded teaexploding+697%74K
hojichagrowing steadily+14%74K
mud wtrpast its peak-23%61K
golden milkpast its peak-9%27K
chicory coffeegrowing steadily-7%27K
ceremonial matchagrowing steadily+150%12K
coffee alternativegrowing steadily+115%7K
dandelion coffeepast its peak+52%2K
pero coffee substituteexplodingdirection only720

Where to start

The strongest ways in, by what you'd build: each search scored on that kind of business.

An app or software

  1. ceremonial matchaapp opportunity 53/100; 45% of the apps already there are weak
  2. matchaapp opportunity 52/100; 24% of the apps already there are weak
  3. yerba mateapp opportunity 52/100; 54% of the apps already there are weak

A physical product

  1. loaded tea
  2. ceremonial matcha
  3. dandelion coffee

Content: a site, channel or newsletter

  1. loaded teacontent score 57/100, best as a comparison
  2. matchacontent score 57/100, best as a comparison
  3. ceremonial matchacontent score 54/100, best as a comparison

What coffee alternatives opens

Business ideas Next Big researched on this rise, scored on timing, pain, how hard they are to build and the size of the prize.

  • 56/100Platform · B2B · $$

    Lab-verified loaded tea concentrates and caffeine-labelled menus for independent tea shops

    A wholesale concentrate line with a tested caffeine number for every pump, plus the menu, labels and switch-over kit an independent loaded tea shop needs to leave Herbalife or open without it.

    Good Timing
    7/10
    Moderate Pain
    6/10
    Challenging
    6/10
    Moderate
    6/10

    For independent loaded tea shop owners, first version in 10 weeks, about $80K to start, first revenue in 12 weeks.

    Why now: Caffeine disclosure moved from a curiosity to a regulatory agenda item in 2026, just as the loaded tea format went mainstream.

    The full write-up is in the app

Coffee alternatives, in depth

Thirteen searches doing one job: replacing the morning cup. The job has a search of its own, "coffee alternative", phrased as "alternative to coffee", "best coffee alternative" and "coffee alternative for energy". It drew 171% more searches over the last twelve months than the twelve before, but that came as a sudden step after years at one level, the shape of a change in how searches are counted as much as of demand, so read its size as unconfirmed; the members' own growth is the steadier signal. The members are the options people weigh: Japanese green teas, mushroom blends, South American mate, caffeine-free roots, grains and spices, and the newest, loaded tea.

Almost everything grew. Measured the fair way, the last twelve months against the twelve before, ten of the eleven members with two years of history are up: dandelion coffee 94%, ceremonial matcha 79%, golden milk and Ryze 36%, hojicha 31%, matcha and mushroom coffee 26% each, chicory coffee 20%, yerba mate 8%. The one exception is Mud Wtr, down 10%.

Two directions are pulling. One is calmer caffeine: matcha is in the exploding stage and searched as "matcha latte", "matcha near me" and "matcha starbucks"; ceremonial matcha grew three times as fast as matcha itself, which is buyers trading up; hojicha, roasted and low in caffeine, is still rising over the last six months (+6%). The other is more energy: loaded tea, a caffeinated drink mixed to order in small shops, is up 697% over the last year and 170% over the last six months, at 74,000 searches a month, and people look for it as "loaded tea near me" and "loaded tea shop".

The mushroom brands grew but are marked peaked, and what people search around them is verdicts, "ryze mushroom coffee reviews", "mud wtr vs ryze", "mud wtr vs everyday dose". That is a category being audited rather than discovered, with its first brand already shrinking. The oldest option is back in view too: Pero, a roasted-grain instant drink, is small at 720 searches a month and too new in the data to read as more than direction, but people search it by brand and ask where to buy it.

What a founder should notice: much of the year's gain came in a surge in spring 2026 that has since cooled, six-month changes run from -17% for matcha to -54% for golden milk, and -33% for the umbrella search, and matcha and golden milk peak each April, so compare seasons before calling a turn. Loaded tea and hojicha are the two still climbing, and both are bought over a counter: a local drinks shop or café menu built around them is a nearer bet than another mushroom blend in a peaked category its brands already own. The umbrella search says why people switch, energy without jitters, reflux, pregnancy, and a product built against one of those complaints has a sharper pitch than "an alternative".

Sources

Growth: each search's Google Trends series, measured over a year against the year before, and the Next Big Pulse where it has one. Searches a month, cost per click and ranking difficulty: Google Ads keyword estimates for the US. Membership: our own read of what each search is for.

How we read every source

Scores are Next Big's own reads of public search data. They aren't financial, investment, trading or medical advice.

Questions

Is the coffee alternatives market growing?

Yes. 10 of 11 measured searches in it are rising, at a median +31% on a year ago. 10 of 11 with three years of history rose two years running, so it isn't one season's spike.

How many people search for coffee alternatives?

The largest search in it, matcha, draws about 823K a month in the US. 10 of its 13 searches draw 10K or more.

When do people search for coffee alternatives most?

In April, across its searches. Read a rise measured near the peak as direction, not size.

What business could you start in the coffee alternatives market?

An app or software: ceremonial matcha, matcha, yerba mate. A physical product: loaded tea, ceremonial matcha, dandelion coffee. Content: loaded tea, matcha, ceremonial matcha. We've also worked up one idea on it, scored on timing, pain, feasibility and size.

How is the opportunity score worked out?

Six parts, out of 100: momentum (25), how many of its searches are rising (15), whether the rise lasts (20), size (15), what advertisers pay a click (10) and room to rank (15). Coffee alternatives scores 66.

Know when a market turns

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